Schools and colleges (centres) estimates of how students are likely to perform are essential information for the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) and for the candidates taking national examinations on Scotland. Estimates are used in determining grade boundaries and derived grades and to support candidate appeals to have their examaimation awards reviewed. It is important therefore that these estimates should be as accurate as possible, but the extent of the match between centres’ estimates and candidate performance in the external assessment is known to vary between centres and between subjects.

To explore how centres arrive at estimates and identify approaches which lead to more accurate estimates with the aim of improving SQA’s processes and guidance to centres.

Analysis of SQA data on estimates nationally to identify subjects and centres for inclusion. Eleven centres ( 10 schools and 1 FE colleges) were selected and 6 subjects offering a range of types of assessment were chosen for study.

Analysis of SQA data and interviews with staff (33) in the selected presenting centres.

The study identified a number of issues for the SQA to consider. These included: staff's perceptions of the purpose and use of estimates by SQA which differed from the SQA's view; the lack of a clear relationship between particular approaches to estimating and more accurate estimates indicating that no one approach offers the solution; and the need for further investigation of subject difference.