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IMPACT: Understanding the Labour Market Impact of Immigration in Britain



Overview


A Research Project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council under the "Understanding Population Trends and Processes: A Secondary Data Analysis Initiative" (http://www.uptap.net/)

Background
The on-going research concentrates on processes which affect population, society and the economy in contemporary Britain as a result of increased international migration flow. It investigates the impact of immigration on British labour market, with particular attention to the effects of immigration on the labour market outcomes of British born population. It explores the relationship between skill levels of British born workers, size and composition of the immigrant population, overall opportunity structure of the labour market and the labour market outcomes of British born workers at the level of local labour markets. The paper also offers inter-UK comparisons that enable the significance of differences in (a) policy (b) skill levels of immigrants and (c) socio-demographic characteristics of the British population within a shared UK labour market to be tested. The data sources selected (Labour Force Surveys, Annual Labour Force Surveys Local Areas data; the Annual Population Survey for 2004, 2005 and 2006 and the Office for National Statistics supplementary data: Local Areas Data Sets on Ethnicity). Multilevel regression technique is used for the analyses
Aims of the Research
The following research questions are addressed:
1. What are the variations between local labour markets in terms of the outcomes for native workers in employment status, wages and occupational status? To what extent do those variations result from characteristics of workers, such as their demographic characteristics and educational level? To what extent do they result from ethnicity?
2. To what extent can spatial variations in the outcomes of native workers be attributed to the differences between local labour markets in (a) employment opportunity structure, in terms of the rates and unemployment and economic activity and number of existing job vacancies; (b) demographic profile of the population; (c) educational, occupational and industrial characteristics of the population; (d) ethnic composition of the population.
3. Are the average outcomes of native workers in a local labour market correlate with size of the immigrant population? Does the correlation still exist after controlling for variations between the local labour markets in the employment opportunity structure and in the socio-demographic profiles of their populations? To what extent can spatial variations in individual labour market outcomes be attributed to spatial variations in the concentrations of the immigrant population?
4. How does this immigration effect vary according to such characteristics of immigrants as (a) their national origin; (b) their year of arrival in the UK; and (c) their level of education?
5. Are there differences in the immigration impact between Scotland and the rest of Britain? To what extent can those differences be attributed to variation in labour market opportunity structures, native population socio-demographic characteristics, size of immigrant population?
Design and Scope
The analysis is conducted by using the multilevel regression technique, through estimation of linear and logistic regressions. The analysis is conducted on the level of individual and local labour markets. The individual level units of analysis are individuals who were either born in the UK or immigrated to the UK under age 6 and hence have British educational experience and labour market skills. The units of analysis at the level of local labour markets are Unitary Authorities across Britain. The dependent variables in the regression models are the individual labour market outcomes in terms of (1) odds of participation in the labour force; (2) risk of unemployment (3) odds of self-employment (4) odds to have unskilled occupations (5) monthly gross income from work. The independent variables in the regression analyses are the individual’s demographic characteristics (age, gender, highest educational qualification, family type) and ethnicity; the Local labour markets level independent variables will include information on demographic, educational, occupational and industrial profiles of population; percentage of ethnic minorities; rates of unemployment and economic activity of population.
Key Findings
 In localities with larger population of immigrants, the UK born population has higher chances of being economically inactive rather than working in low skilled occupations or being short-term unemployed.
 UK born workers are less likely to work in white collar occupations in localities where immigrants who arrived in the UK in 2004 or thereafter (i.e. ‘new immigrants’) make up a larger share of the whole immigrant population.
 Immigrant spatial concentrations do not affect the chances of non-immigrant population work in a higher status blue collar occupations.
 Immigrant spatial concentrations have different effect on the labour market outcomes of UK born and immigrants themselves.
 Immigrants who live in localities with large immigrant populations (both old and new immigrants) are less likely to work in white collar occupations.
 In localities with higher concentration of ethnic minorities, White UK population and immigrants are both more likely to work in white collar occupation.
 Ethnic minorities themselves as well as low skilled workers are less likely to work in white collar occupations in localities with a large presence of UK born ethnic minorities.
 In localities with a larger proportion of immigrants, UK born workers earn more but their wages are depressed in areas where ‘new’ immigrants make up a larger share of the immigrant population.
 The impact of immigration on wages is more negative for those UK born workers who have higher levels of qualifications than for those with lower qualifications.


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Published and working papers from this project will be posted on this site when they become available.

 

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